The goal is to utilize as much of the land as possible in formal plantings
of pine. By mid 2019 we want two primary stands:
STAND 1, 90 acres Pine, 10 acres Hardwood - Mature existing stand of 30 year old pine - the area outside of the red boundaries. This stand currently has about 90 acres of pine. (From left to right ... 5 + 8 + 6 + 45 + 14 +11). The pine are largely > 12" DBH, in the Saw Timber category. While these pine are currently ready for harvest, for estate planning purposes, we want to put off final harvest until the earlier of the land passing into an estate, or 2028, which would be at year 40 of the stand's age. The area of the existing stand within the yellow boundary, marked E above, could be thinned at any time. Its basal area is within the range of 130 to 160, and should be thinned down to the 80 to 90 range. The basal area of the other half of the 45 acre stand should also be checked for a need of possible thinning. This thinning should be done at the same time the work is done to establish stand #2.
The 10 acres of Hardwood are in a bottoms area that often floods and remains consistently wet. Pine will not grow there. Currently, it is largely a Popular stand. After harvest, replant that area in Ash.
STAND 2, 60 acres - Clean out all the areas within the red boundaries above, mostly by clear-cutting all existing trees, bush hogging pasture, hand or mechanical spraying:
Area A - 39 Acres. 8 acres mature pine, 9 acres dense hardwood, 11 acres sparse hardwood, 11 acres pasture with heavy briars. Plant the pasture thick @ 781 seedlings per acre, the rest @ 680 seedlings per acre.
Area B - 5 Acres. Naturally seeded pine with thick undergrowth of grasses, hardwoods, briars, weeds.
Area C - 16 acres. 3 acres mature pine. 13 acres sparse hardwood.
Area D - 2 acres. Dense, mature pine and hardwood.
Start a second 60 acre pine stand in these areas through formal planting in the fall of 2018, spring of 2019. Areas A,C, and D can be clear-cut, bush hogged, hand or mechanical sprayed. Area B can be mechanically sprayed to take out everything but the pine.
Conservative estimate of revenues and costs of 2018-19 work.
Revenues:
PINE CLEAR-CUT 13 acres (8 from A, 3 from C, 2 from D) mature pine x 110 tons x $17 a ton = $24.3 K
PINE THINNING 22.5 acres x 20 tons x $17 a ton = $7.6 K
HARDWOOD CLEAR-CUT 9 acres dense hardwood x 50 tons x $17 = $7.6 K
HARDWOOD CLEAR-CUT 26 acres sparse hardwood x 5 tons x $17 = $2.2 K
Revenue = $41.7 K
Expenses:
PLANTING 62 acres x $300 an acre (very high estimate) = $18.6 K
FORESTRY CONSULTANT 10% fee = $4.1 K
Expenses = $22.7 K
Net: $19 K
Notes:
STAND 1, 90 acres Pine, 10 acres Hardwood - Mature existing stand of 30 year old pine - the area outside of the red boundaries. This stand currently has about 90 acres of pine. (From left to right ... 5 + 8 + 6 + 45 + 14 +11). The pine are largely > 12" DBH, in the Saw Timber category. While these pine are currently ready for harvest, for estate planning purposes, we want to put off final harvest until the earlier of the land passing into an estate, or 2028, which would be at year 40 of the stand's age. The area of the existing stand within the yellow boundary, marked E above, could be thinned at any time. Its basal area is within the range of 130 to 160, and should be thinned down to the 80 to 90 range. The basal area of the other half of the 45 acre stand should also be checked for a need of possible thinning. This thinning should be done at the same time the work is done to establish stand #2.
The 10 acres of Hardwood are in a bottoms area that often floods and remains consistently wet. Pine will not grow there. Currently, it is largely a Popular stand. After harvest, replant that area in Ash.
STAND 2, 60 acres - Clean out all the areas within the red boundaries above, mostly by clear-cutting all existing trees, bush hogging pasture, hand or mechanical spraying:
Area A - 39 Acres. 8 acres mature pine, 9 acres dense hardwood, 11 acres sparse hardwood, 11 acres pasture with heavy briars. Plant the pasture thick @ 781 seedlings per acre, the rest @ 680 seedlings per acre.
Area B - 5 Acres. Naturally seeded pine with thick undergrowth of grasses, hardwoods, briars, weeds.
Area C - 16 acres. 3 acres mature pine. 13 acres sparse hardwood.
Area D - 2 acres. Dense, mature pine and hardwood.
Start a second 60 acre pine stand in these areas through formal planting in the fall of 2018, spring of 2019. Areas A,C, and D can be clear-cut, bush hogged, hand or mechanical sprayed. Area B can be mechanically sprayed to take out everything but the pine.
Conservative estimate of revenues and costs of 2018-19 work.
Revenues:
PINE CLEAR-CUT 13 acres (8 from A, 3 from C, 2 from D) mature pine x 110 tons x $17 a ton = $24.3 K
PINE THINNING 22.5 acres x 20 tons x $17 a ton = $7.6 K
HARDWOOD CLEAR-CUT 9 acres dense hardwood x 50 tons x $17 = $7.6 K
HARDWOOD CLEAR-CUT 26 acres sparse hardwood x 5 tons x $17 = $2.2 K
Revenue = $41.7 K
Expenses:
PLANTING 62 acres x $300 an acre (very high estimate) = $18.6 K
FORESTRY CONSULTANT 10% fee = $4.1 K
Expenses = $22.7 K
Net: $19 K
Notes:
- I assume absolute worse case in clearing and planting costs. We can talk with Charlie to see if he would be willing to bush hog at $30 to $50 an acre. It might take a solid week, but I can walk it and spray. Planting costs are about $80 to $100 an acre for seedlings and labor. We likely are going to need to get Area B mechanically sprayed. Overall planting costs could come in at $150 to $200 per acre, instead of $300.
- Pine revenue of $17 a ton should be low-end. A good amount of pine will be Saw Timber at $24 a ton. If not, then chip-N-saw at $17 a ton, some pulp at $8 a ton.
- Hardwood revenue is a crap shoot. Could be higher, maybe lower.
- Number of acres that can be thinned in STAND #1 can easily be 2x or 3x above, and tonnage coming out could be 30 tons instead of 20. So thinning revenue in wide range of $7 K to $34 K. Assumed low end.
- I am familiar enough with doing basal measurements that I will likely walk the existing mature stand and mark the trees to be removed. It might take a couple weeks, but its something I want to do from a learning perspective, then have Leonard just eyeball, bless.
Schedule of Key Future Revenue, Expense points thru 2052 (based on current pricing):
2019 Establish 60 acres Stand #2 first rotation = $19 K
(above)
2028 Clear-cut Stand #1 ... 90 acres x 120 tons per acre x $20 (blend
SawTimber and ChipNSaw) = $216 K
2029 Establish 90 acres Stand #1 second rotation (assume $200 per acre
costs) = – $18 K
2034 1st thinning Stand #2 ... 60 acres x 30 tons per acre
x $8 pulp = $15 K
2042 2nd thinning Stand #2 ... 60 acres x 30 tons per acre
x $17 = $31 K
2044 First thinning Stand #1 ... 90 acres x 30 tons per acre x $8 pulp =
$22 K
2049 Final harvest Stand #2 ... 60 acres x 120 tons per
acre x $24 Saw Timber = $172 K
2052 Second thinning Stand #1 ... 90 acres x 30 tons per acre x $17 = $46
K
March 13, 2018
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