Monday, February 5, 2018

Property Investment Opportunity.


Asking $2,305 per acre.

Description 2018,  270 acres:

1.  34 acres 28 years old Un-thinned.  Planted 1990.  Loblolly.
2.  74 acres 27 years old. Thinned.  Planted 1991.  Loblolly.
3.  126 acres 20 years old. Un-thinned.  Planted 1998.  Loblolly.
4.  36 acres Natural Hardwood.  Popular,  Oak,  White Pine.


Quality Estimate 2008:

1.  18 years old.  BA 140-190.  DBH 4"-6".  SI 75-85
2.  17 years old.  BA 160-190.  DBH 6"-8".  SI 75-85
3.  10 years old.  Not merchantable in size.  SI 75-85
4.  Hardwood 25 to 30 years old.  BA 80-100.  DBH 8"-10"  SI 80.


Output Estimate 2013:

1.  23 years old.  14.4 MBF SawTimber.  1,036 Cords PulpWood.
2.  22 years old.  76.2 MBF SawTimber.  1,881 Cords PulpWood.
3.  15 years old.  Pre-merchantable pine.
4.  Hardwood SawTimber 16.8 MBF Yellow Popular, 12.074 MBF Oak, 4.737 MBF Mixed, 29.271 MBF White Pine.  + 130 Cords PulpWood.

Valuation Estimate 2013:

1.  34 acres 23 yr old Un-Thinned.  $18,593 ... $546 per acre.

SawTimber 14.4 x 7.5 = 108 tons
$2,017 / 108 tons = $18.67 per ton ... now $23.99 per ton

PulpWood 1,036 x 2.68 = 2776 tons
$16,576 / 2776 tons =  $5.97 per ton ... now $10.77 per ton

108 + 2776 = 2884 tons / 34 acres = 84 tons per acre
5% SawTimber,  95% Pulpwood.

Assume - 3 tons per acre growth per year.  3 tons per yr x 5 yrs x 34 acres =  510 tons + 2884 tons = now 3394 tons.   Further assume mix change to 20% SawTimer,  80% Pulpwood.

SawTimber 678 tons x $23.99 per ton = $16,265
PulpWood 2715 tons x $10.77 per ton = $29,240
New Value of 34 acre trac = $45,505

2.  74 acres 22 yr old Thinned.  $40,773 ... $550 per acre.

SawTimber 76.2 x 7.5 = 571 tons
$10,667 / 571 tons =  $18.68 per ton ... now $23.99 per ton

Pulpwood 1,881 x 2.68 = 5041 tons
$30,096 / 5041 = $5.97 per ton ... now $10.77 per ton

571 + 5041 = 5612 tons / 74 acres = 75.8 tons per acre
10% SawTimber,  90% Pulpwood.

Assume - 3 tons per acre growth per year.  3 tons per yr x 5 yrs x 74 acres =  1,110 tons + 5612 tons = now 6722 tons.  Further assume mix change to 40% SawTimber, 60% Pulpwood.

SawTimber 2688 tons x $23.99 per ton = $64,485
PulpWood 4033 tons x $10.77 per ton = $43,435
New Value of 74 acre trac = $107,920

3. 126 acres 15 yr.  $37,296 ... $296 per acre.

Given value of $37,296 / 126 acres = $296 per acre.

Assume - Now 20 yrs old.  Avg tonnage of 20 yr old stand is 80 tons per acre. 80 tons x 126 acres =  10,080 tons.  Assume 10% SawTimber, 90% Pulpwood.

SawTimber 1008 tons x 23.99 per ton = $24,181
PulpWood 9072 tons x 10.77 per ton = $97,705
New Value of 74 acre trac = $121,886

4.  36 acres natural hardwood.  $14,563 ... $404 per acre.

SawTimber Yellow Popular 16.812 x 8.75 =  147.1 Tons
$3,614 / 147.1 Tons = $24.56 per ton

Sawtimber Oak 12.074 x 8.75 = 105.64 Tons
$3,320 / 105.64 Tons = $31.42 per ton ... now $46.13 per ton

SawTimber Mixed 4.737 x 8.75 = 41.48 Tons
$639 / 41.48 Tons = $15.38 per ton ... now $24.54 per ton

SawTimber White Pine 29.271 x 8.75 = 256.1 Tons
$4,390 / 256.1 Tons = $17.41 per ton

Pulpwood Hardwood 130 cords x 2.9 = 377 Tons
$2,600 / 377 Tons = $6.89 per ton  ... now $3.97 per ton

Total 2013 Valuation per Appraisal = $111,225 ... $411 per acre. Net asking per acre = $2,305 - $411 per acre = $1,894 per acre.

Ballpark 2018 Valuation
Trac 1 $45.5 K
Trac 2 $107.9 K
Trac 3 $121.8 K
Trac 4 $35 K (swag)
Total value of Timber =  $310,200 K

$310.2 / 270 = $1,148
Net asking per acre = $2,305 - $1,148 = $1,157 per acre.


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