Links to Key Information

NORTH CAROLINA HISTORIC STUMPAGE PRICES 1988-2017

Texas A&M Decision Support System

1 NC STATE QUARTERLY PRICE REPORT
Quarterly pricing of Timber.  Southeast.
Key Ratios:
Pulpwood  2.68 tons per standard cord
ChipNSaw  7.5 tons per thousand board feet
SawTimber 7.5 tons per thousand board feet

2  North Carolina Present Use Valuation Program Guide
Lengthy PDF file with all the rules and regulations of the Present Use Valuation program across North Carolina.

3  AV-4 Present Use Value General Statutes
General Statutes of North Carolina that detail the rules of the Present Use Valuation program.

4  AV-5 Application for Present Use Value Assessment
Application to have your property included in the Present Use Valuation program.

5  TimberMart-South Stumpage Prices 
Timer Mart-South  - Average timber prices throughout the south for most recent quarter and 10 years ago.

6  Six reasons lumber in the South does not track US Housing Starts
ForRisk - Good article on why lumber prices are not tracking with Housing Starts.

7  What's happening to Pine sawtimber in the US South
American Forest Management - Article that lays out how we got to 5 year oversupply of timber in the SouthEast ... "It is estimated that in the US South timber markets, there is an additional 60 months of surplus sawtimber supply over what is historically available for harvest during a healthy cycle.  Forisk Consulting described it well in their blog post as “Sawtimber inventories grew from the equivalent of 15 years of removals on the stump (relative to annual demand) up to 20 years on average across the US South today.”

8  Southern Pine sawtimber supply forecasts and pricing impacts 
ForRisk - Another good article that lays out how we currently have a 5 year oversupply of standing timber,  which could take up to 10 years to clear ... The forest profile in the South changed during and following the recession. Sawtimber inventories grew from the equivalent of 15 years of removals on the stump (relative to annual demand) to over 25 years of removals on the stump (Figure). The average forest in the South today still has 20 years of standing inventory. The recession reset the “normal” relationship of supplies to removals in the South; we estimate a new baseline with 5 more years of inventory relative to removals.

9  Timber Update blog post on the math behind thinning.
TimberUpdate Blog - Good article that walks through the math of why thinning a tree stand makes sense.  The stand is growing at 3.3 tons per acre per year (1.25 cords/acre volume growth potential). The product ratio within the stand is 2/3 pulpwood trees and 1/3 chip-n-saw. Assuming $7 per ton for pulpwood and $15 for chip-n-saw, the annual value growth for the existing 450 trees per acre is $31.86/acre/year.

10 Commerical Pine Thinning
Virginia Department of Forestry - Excellent article that describes the basics ... The first thinning should occur at age 16 - 20 and bring the number of trees down to 250-300 trees per acre dependent on the site and health of the trees. The second thinning should then occur at age 25 - 30 and reduce the stocking to 125 trees per acre. These are the trees that will be carried to the full rotation age of 35-45.  Typically you should get $14 - $18 per standard cord of wood removed in the first thinning. Most first thinning seem to yield an average of 10-12 cords per acre and the buyer usually pays per unit volume removed which is measured in weight as the trucks enter the mill. Loblolly pine pulpwood in Virginia averages about 5200 pounds per cord. This means each cord of pulpwood weighs approximately 2.6 tons and the price range above is equivalent to $5.38 to $6.92 per ton (or $0.27 to $0.35 per 100 pounds).

11 Forestry Forum Discussion
Forestry Forum - For southern pine on a 20 year pulpwood rotation, no thinning, clearcut at age 20, you can expect about 80 tons/acre.  That is about 30 cords per acre. On a conventional sawtimber rotation of 30 years in southern pine, you thin at about age 15, then again at about age 22, then clearcut at age 30.  Two thins then a clearcut.  7 - 8 year intervals between thinning. You will get about 25 - 30 tons/acre at each thinning, and you will get about 80 - 90 tons/acre at clearcut.  The first thinning will be all pulpwood, the second thinning will be a mix of pulpwood and chip-n-saw (small sawtimber). Usually the economics are better for growing sawtimber with two intermediate thinnings, but at current pulpwood prices in much of the Southeast and Gulf regions, it is about equal, so it all has to do with your expectation of price in the future when the wood will be harvested.

12 Guide to thinning pine plantations
University of Georgia School of Forestry - Great article on the math behind timber.  Excellent graph on pg 7 on Pulp, Chip and Saw,  and Saw Timber prices from 1976 - 2013.

13  Estimating Land Value for growing Timber
Alabama Cooperative Extension System - Key table on determining Site Index of your land.   Once you get the site index,  there is another table that will estimate the timber yields for loblolly.   Site index of 60 with initial planting of 681 trees per acre:
1st thinning:  Age 15 yields Pulpwood of 24.1 cords per acre.
2nd thinning:  Age 23 yields Pulpwood of .7 cords per acre, ChipNSaw of 5.3 cords per acre, SawTimber of 5.5 MBF per acre.
Clear-cut:  Age 35 yields Pulpwood of .5 cords per acre, ChipNSaw of 4.1 cords per acre, SawTimber of 13.8 MBF per acre.

14 Jimmy Carter WaPo Op-Ed
Washington Post - May 2017 Opinion piece written by Jimmy Carter.  Outlines why it was right for Trump to slap tariffs on Canadian Lumber.

15 Canadian Lumber Outlook
ProfitGuide - Stats on the outlook for the Canadian Lumber industry.  Has some interesting graphs.

16 Glossary of Forestry Mgt Terms
North Carolina Forestry Service - Typical Forestry terms.

17 Landowners handbook for managing southern pines
Good overall reference to all issues of managing a timber stand.

18 Cut your timber,  not your profits
Appendix A,  method to know ideal time for final harvest.

19 Correct planting density 
Alabama NCRS article on the various issues to consider in determining the appropriate planting density for pines.