Belwood 1987 Financial Analyses

This was a 1987 analysis given to Jerry Willis,  prior to planting.

Current per ton Prices in 2018:

$8 Pulpwood

$18 ChipNSaw

$24 SawTimber

Per Hal,  these are taxable income amounts off the trees (50% interest):

2005 $12,931 (regular thin)

2006 $1,569 (ice damage)

2013 $22,510 (regular thin)

 

1988 Projections for 2005: Age 17 13 cords x 2.68 = 34.84 tons per acre ... 153.92/34.84 tons = $4.41 per ton Pulpwood

Actual Results: 2005, 2006.  The stand was thinned on schedule on 2005.  Then, in 2006 it sustained ice damage and loggers came in again to harvest the damaged trees.   There are about 100 acres of pine.  Per the schedule above done in 1988,  expected revenue ... $153.92 per acre x 100 = $15,392.   Actual take for 2005,2006 turned out to be $29,000, $290 per acre.  Still looking to try to determine actual tonnage info.  Better than expected results likely from better than projected pricing.  Timber pricing peaked in 2005 and has not returned to that level of pricing as of 2018.

1988 Projections for 2013: Age 25 13 cords x 2.68 = 34.84 tons per acre ... 166.66/34.84 ton = $4.78 per ton Pulpwood

Actual Results: 2013. The stand was thinned again on schedule in 2013.  Estimated take based on 1988 projections was $166.66 per acre x 100 acres = $16,666.   Actual take was $45,020, $450 per acre.  Still looking to try to determine actual tonnage info.  Better than expected take was likely because higher tonnage removed than 1998 projections.  Looking to confirm.  The timber contract signed in 2012 indicates the following prices:  Pine Pulp $6.75 per ton,  Logs $24 per ton,  Hardwood Pulp $7.50 per ton.  

1988 Projections for 2021:  Age 33  3 MBF x 7.5 = 22.5 tons per acre ... 795.69/22.5 = $35.36 per ton SawTimber/ChipNSaw

Based on the 1988 projections and today's pricing of $24 per ton for SawTimber,  then results achieved should be 22.5 tons per acre x 100 acres x $24 = $54,000

1988 Projections for 2028:  Age 40 2028 16 MBF x 7.5 = 120 tons per acre ... 5219.20/120 = $43.49 per ton SawTimber 

Based on the 1988 projections and today's pricing of $24 per ton for SawTimber,  then results achieved should be 120 tons per acre x 100 acres x $24 = $288,000

JWillis 2/11/2018